While an analyst is entitled to write research to back up his rating, surely retrofitting analysis to justify an already-formed conclusion is a cardinal sin against investors. Especially when such misleading work is picked up in the media as gospel truth.
Unfortunately for Telstra shareholders, we saw this yesterday in The Australian, page 33, Trujillo ‘transformation’ reaches point of no return (www.australianit.news.com.au). The report is based on a JP Morgan analyst’s view that Telstra’s “Transformation plans overall value accretion claim vanished” when Telstra revised its 2010 revenue and capital expenditure guidance in August. That analysis is based on the flawed assumption that without transformation, Telstra’s long-term revenue growth would have been 2.2 per cent.
Yes, 2.2 per cent was Telstra’s three-year growth rate pre-transformation. But no analyst back in 2005 forecast that the 2.2 per cent growth rate would continue. At the time, the consensus growth rate from 2005 to 2010 was just over 1 per cent. Indeed, Telstra’s initial transformation growth target of 2-2.5 per cent was viewed by a sceptical market as at best challenging.
These small percentage differences are crucial. A 1 per cent difference in annual growth equates to more than $1bn in revenue in 2010 and nearly $3b in 2015.
For the record, Telstra’s own status quo target in November 2005 was -0.9 per cent. Even if an analyst disagrees with this estimate, it surely deserves at least a cursory mention.
The market regulators may not be able to question analyst research, however misleading, and a company is generally expected to just suck it up. But surely investors themselves deserve more balance.
This is a copy of a Letter to the Editor - sent to The Australian.