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Investors deserve better



Topic: Telstra , Shareholder

Tags:    facts  furphies  investment-news  john-stanhope  michael-sainsbury  opinion  shareholder  shares  telstra  the-australian


Telstra's Chief Financial Officer, Mr John Stanhope

While an analyst is entitled to write research to back up his rating, surely retrofitting analysis to justify an already-formed conclusion is a cardinal sin against investors. Especially when such misleading work is picked up in the media as gospel truth.

Unfortunately for Telstra shareholders, we saw this yesterday in The Australian, page 33, Trujillo ‘transformation’ reaches point of no return (www.australianit.news.com.au). The report is based on a JP Morgan analyst’s view that Telstra’s “Transformation plans overall value accretion claim vanished” when Telstra revised its 2010 revenue and capital expenditure guidance in August. That analysis is based on the flawed assumption that without transformation, Telstra’s long-term revenue growth would have been 2.2 per cent.

Yes, 2.2 per cent was Telstra’s three-year growth rate pre-transformation. But no analyst back in 2005 forecast that the 2.2 per cent growth rate would continue. At the time, the consensus growth rate from 2005 to 2010 was just over 1 per cent. Indeed, Telstra’s initial transformation growth target of 2-2.5 per cent was viewed by a sceptical market as at best challenging.

These small percentage differences are crucial. A 1 per cent difference in annual growth equates to more than $1bn in revenue in 2010 and nearly $3b in 2015.

For the record, Telstra’s own status quo target in November 2005 was -0.9 per cent. Even if an analyst disagrees with this estimate, it surely deserves at least a cursory mention.

The market regulators may not be able to question analyst research, however misleading, and a company is generally expected to just suck it up. But surely investors themselves deserve more balance.

This is a copy of a Letter to the Editor - sent to The Australian.

Comments

Sydney Lawrence
158 comments

17 September 2008
7:59am

Comment Permalink

Good to see John Stanhope publicly answer the devious writings of Michael Sainsbury. Truth is always advantageous, but when Michael Sainsbury displays his historical untruths, distortions and his obvious anti Telstra phobia Australians must speak out. I know the fact that I have cancelled my subscription of the Australian Newspaper would not devastate Rupert Murdoch, but really I think the comments of Sainsbury should be examined for accuracy.


Richard Butler
1 comment

17 September 2008
11:00am

Comment Permalink

If I was an editor in The Australian I'd be very concerned to see my writers/ journalists in growth.

That would mean Id have a talent pool that is self developing and increasingly useful to its readership.

Michael Sainsbury is becoming so mannered in his observations of Telstra that he's kind of like the journalistic version of Sylvester Stallone. He's said the same thing so many times, and produced so little change - that everyone has even stopped thinking that he might contribute any sense of value.

There is just a sameness that is now predictable, able to be anticipated and shows all growth has ceased.

Is this where journalism seeks to end up ? A scratched record, a limited vocabulary and perhaps even a remembered view of what things were once like.

That dream - nurtured at cadet stage when covering the friday night greyhound races somewhere nowhere special has well disappeared. Michaels intelligently arid dribble can all be summarised into about 2 sentences. "I dont like them, and every time I consider them I can produce meaningless repetetive ullage and use my position to get it published"

Sainsbury's execution of craft has come to a few miserable lines about a company he thinks unfavourably of, and those lines get trotted out with such frequency the pieces dont need to be read any more.

He's produced himself out of relevance and in doing so diminishes the quality and standing of his profession. There isnt a journalist in Australia with a healthy mind that would read his work with admiration. in that sense Sainbury is an offence to his craft, his profession and the process of thinking that sits behind written expression.

Its just white noise.

Dylan wrote in his epic song "licence to kill" that ...man..'worships an alter beside and stagnant pool - and when he sees his reflection he is fulfilled..'

They are probably the most accurate description of Sainsbury's narcissistic emphatuation with himself and his own dribble.

Some of us just wonder at the waste of the wood pulp and kilobits - and observe the absence of new information, of outcome or change.



Vasso Massonic
265 comments

17 September 2008
11:19am

Comment Permalink

I mentioned in my comments pertaining to the 'Telstra doubles rating in Dow Jones Sustainability Index' article... "Like JP Morgan's Telstra sceptics who seem to know the price of everything but the value of nothing," These jokers are dazzled by market capitalisation but have no idea of Sustainability. We have witnessed very recently the dissipation of billions of capitalisation dollars into thin air at home and abroad which clearly contrasts with the amount of cash flow Telstra reinvestes in plant and equipment to maintain and grow the company's operations for the national interest and its shareholders.

Laurent Horrut and Colin Morawski you can put your following comment in your pipes and smoke it ... "Clearly the more capital (capex) that is spent, the bigger the level of depreciation and amortisation on assets, which crimps profits and therefore the ability of the company to return capital to its shareholders and ultimately hits the value the market puts on Telstra stock." As regards to sainsbury's "The Wizard of Oz, indeed."..... Clearly, these three men of straw couldn't organise, between them, a p!ssup in a brewery, even the gallahs in the field would laugh at them. I agree with John Stanhope, we deserve better from The (supposedly) Australian Newspaper.


Steven Zielinski
3 comments

17 September 2008
11:22am

Comment Permalink

I trust JP Morgan economists as much as the directors of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Sterns and Lehman Bros.
Having said that, anyone who believes in infinite growth in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.


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