By Dr Jeffrey Cole, Ph.D.
Director, USC Annenberg School Center for the Digital Future (www.digitalcenter.org)
Founder and Organizer, World Internet Project

In an exclusive article for nowwearetalking, distinguished world internet researcher and commentator, Dr Jeffrey Cole shares his insights on what he sees are the six key trends for the Internet.

1. The web is not turning us into social zombies

From the beginning, critics worried that Internet users would have red eyes because they were up all night on-line, would become fatter because they are sitting in front of a screen rather than getting out and moving around and might have friends around the planet but not know the person living next door. There were fears users would become isolated, alienated, lonely and depressed. None of this has become true. Internet users get about 40 minutes less sleep over the course of a week and actually exercise and participate in sports a bit more than non-users.

2. While broadband changed everything, it was not the speed of broadband but the direct connection or "always on" that made the difference

Almost everyone acquired broadband because of the speed. People got used to the speed immediately and then forgot about it. The direct connection, or "always on" aspect resulted in people moving the Internet connection from the back bedroom to the kitchen and family room, where they were spending their time. This desire to go on-line effortlessly 30-40 times a day led to users wanting the Internet everywhere. It became quicker to check movie times, store hours or national news on the web than in the newspaper or to wait for it on television, causing the web to become the most important source of information.

One of the defining characteristics of Web 3.0 will be when users never compare or talk about their broadband speed; it simply is fast enough to do anything that is desired and the numbers are never mentioned again. Like electricity, when we can simply count on broadband for being there and doing what we need (we never talk about how good our electricity is or whether it will power whatever is plugged in), then the web will be fully integrated into daily life.

3. Social networking is "the real deal"

This is the first thing on the web that causes users to log on more than checking their e-mail. On-line communities like MySpace and Facebook are the most important development on-line in the 21st century and will remain extremely important for a very long time.

At the end of 2006, 43% of the members of social networking sites in developed countries (including Australia) report that their on-line worlds are as important to them as their off-line worlds. In an extraordinary development, at the end of 2007 that number had significantly increased to 55%.

Members of these communities draw their members from around the world irrespective of geography or physical limitations and feel that in many instances they form more "perfect relationships" based almost exclusively on the purpose of the community.

4. Australia, America, Canada, Britain and a few other countries will end up as the only "PC-centric" societies on Earth

When Internet penetration moves beyond 4% in India, it will be on mobile phones. Australians, by being early adopters, bought their PCs early. In truth only the engineer or serious author amongst us needs the power and expense of a PC with its constantly evolving operating system and problems with viruses. The vast majority of web users worldwide only want to access the web and use e-mail, which does not require a powerful computer. The web's future is on mobile.

5. It turns out that it was not the Internet that was a threat to television, but rather dial-up

Dial-up users log on 2-3 times a day for 20-30 minutes at a time. These sessions usually occur at the expense of family conversation time and television viewing. Broadband users, freed of the connection burden, connect constantly in 2-3 minute sessions. Their Internet use occurs during the natural rhythms of family conversation and before and after television programs (and sometimes during the commercials).

6. The opportunities for newspapers in a digital age far outweigh the challenges

On the web, for the first time in 87 years, newspapers are back in the breaking news business. Web newspapers are not "published" once a day, but instead 24/7. Newspapers could never compete with television with its immediacy (newspapers are out of date the moment they land on the doorstep -- magazines even more so), video and audio.

But on the web "no one knows you're a newspaper." On the web newspapers can do exactly what television had done for 60 years and at great cost savings. Only a third of a major newspaper's budget goes to editorial, and 2/3 goes to printing and distribution. On the web, a newspaper's overall expenses are cut almost by the entire 2/3.